Browsing by Subject "correlation analysis"

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    Open Access
    Detecting and predicting land use and land cover change in the cross-sanaga-bioko coastal forest region for sustainable forest management
    (2024) Njume, Epie Wesner; Hull, Simon
    This study assesses forest, agriculture and built-up areas change in the Cross-Sanaka-Bioko (CSB) region from 2000 to 2021, aiming to provide reliable data for sustainable forest management practices. This analysis will be accomplished with the aid of GIS tools (Google Earth Engine and ArcGIS Pro) and remote sensing data (LULC maps and digital elevation models) in the CSB region. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes in forested regions are critical indicators of environmental transformation, contributing to deforestation, forest degradation, and biodiversity loss, with significant impacts on the environment and human well-being. Sustainable forest management is essential for maintaining ecological balance and ensuring forest resources for future generations. A supervised LULC classification map was created for 2000, 2007, 2014, and 2021 using a decision tree-based machine learning algorithm. Loss, gain and post-classification change detection analysis were used to pinpoint significant LULC changes in the region. Identifying the potential impacts of LULC changes to the environment, air pollutants (CO, NO2, SO2, and PM2.5) were used to first evaluate the variation of emission of the pollutants over the years using a descriptive statistic. Furthermore, a point biserial correlation analysis was used to test the strength of association between the supervised LULC classes with the identified pollutants. Lastly the Multi-Layer Perceptron and Cellular Automata-Markov chain models were used to predict land cover change in the region in the year 2063 and validated by comparing the predicted 2063 map with the 2000 and 2021 classified maps in the CSB region. The study revealed a significant reduction in forested areas (35.55% loss), with the most substantial decline (14.69%) between 2007 and 2014. Agricultural and built-up areas increased by 28.05% and 13.73%, respectively. The primary LULC transition was from forests to agricultural areas, followed by built-up areas. Pollutant emissions, except for NO2, exceeded WHO-recommended values in the region. The results from the correlation analysis showed positive and negative correlations between the LULC changes and air pollutants. For example, agriculture had a moderate positive correlation with NO2 and a moderate negative correlation with CO. There is a projected 21.03% loss in forested areas by 2063, with agricultural lands expanding by 19.69% and built-up areas by 10.88%. These findings highlight the urgent need for sustainable development practices to balance forest conservation, agricultural growth, and urban expansion, aligning with Goal 7 of the African Union Agenda to promote environmental sustainability, and Goal 15, Target 15.2 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
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    Open Access
    Population Dynamics, Disturbance, and Pattern Evolution: Identifying the Fundamental Scales of Organization in a Model Ecosystem
    (1998) Wiegand, Thorsten; Moloney, Kirk A; MILTON, SUZANNE J
    ABSTRACT We used auto‐ and cross‐correlation analysis and Ripley's K ‐function analysis to analyze spatiotemporal pattern evolution in a spatially explicit simulation model of a semiarid shrubland (Karoo, South Africa) and to determine the impact of small‐scale disturbances on system dynamics. Without disturnities bance, local dynamics were driven by a pattern of cyclic succession, where ‘colonizer’ and ‘successor’ species alternately replaced each other. This results in a strong pattern of negative correlation in the temporal distribution of colonizer and successor species. As disturbance rates were increased, the relationship shifted from being negatively correlated in time to being positively correlated—the dynamics became decoupled from the ecologically driven cyclic succession and were increasingly influenced by abiotic factors (e.g., rainfall events). Further analysis of the spatial relationships among colonizer and successor species showed that, without disturbance, periods of attraction and repulsion between colonizer and successor species alternate cyclically at intermediate spatial scales. This was due to the spatial ‘memory’ embedded in the system through the process of cyclic succession. With the addition of disturbance, this pattern breaks down, although there is some indication of increasing ecological organization at broader spatial scales. We suggest that many of the insights that can be gained through spatially explicit models will only be obtained through a direct analysis of the spatial patterns produced.
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    The relationship between financial inclusion and entrepreneurship among South African women
    (2024) Khoza, Maximillan; Brijlal, Pradeep
    In South Africa, women have historically faced multifaceted challenges in accessing financial resources, starting and growing businesses, and achieving economic independence. These challenges have contributed to persisting gender disparities in their economic participation. Given the potential for inclusive financial practices to bridge gender disparities, this study examines women's entrepreneurship to generate practical recommendations for policymakers and practitioners. Secondary quantitative data from the World Bank's Global Findex Database was used, and various statistical methodologies, including correlation and regression analysis, were applied. The nature and strength of the relationships between financial inclusion and entrepreneurship among South African women were analysed to understand the impact of financial inclusion on women's entrepreneurship and the determinants and barriers affecting South African women's entrepreneurial engagement. The findings highlighted a positive correlation between women's entrepreneurial engagement and financial inclusion, implying that the latter can enable the participation of women in entrepreneurial activities. Findings also suggested that there has been a steady increase in women's involvement in savings, investments, and entrepreneurial ventures over time. These findings confirm the significant potential for financial inclusion to empower women economically and facilitate greater participation in entrepreneurship. Policymakers and practitioners can use the insights from this study to develop targeted initiatives and interventions aimed at enhancing financial inclusion and, by extension, empowering women economically.